Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc835…0dbc crypto 655 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+0%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%643W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$17
14 days+$155
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$65
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 450 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 2% -10.4%
≤90d 655 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 2% -9.4%
all 655 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$67 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses643 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)655 / 655
History coverage45d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 655 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1299 history records