Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc837…77a2 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%22W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$653per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$8,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$3
politics 46% $0
other 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.9%
all 24 -0.5% -10.0% 92% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$8,703
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses22 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage589d
Avg bet$653
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $8,701 $8,697 −$4 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 Apr 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of January? Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Apr 20 $1 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Apr 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jan 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will Paul Skenes win the 2025 NL Cy Young? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on September 22? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? Oct 23 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 22? Sep 22 $1 $0 +19%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Aug 20 $1 $0 +2%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Aug 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? Aug 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 25 $7,571 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8,702 1h
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $1 59d
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con BUY No 100¢ $2 59d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 59d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 165d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of January? BUY No 99¢ $1 165d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 89¢ $5 165d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 190d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 190d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 91¢ $1 190d
Will Paul Skenes win the 2025 NL Cy Young? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 219d
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential BUY Yes 94¢ $1 219d
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 219d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 238d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 238d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 98¢ $2 238d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on September 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 269d
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? BUY No 87¢ $9 269d
Bitcoin above $112K on August 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 99¢ $3 301d
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 535d
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 535d
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 535d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $42 570d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $170 570d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $174 570d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $167 570d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $182 570d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $175 570d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $172 570d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,702.54 · official $8,702.54 (match) · 102 history records