Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc83a…75ce world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 17% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 6% −$6
tech 4% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 5% -9.2%
all 47 -2.9% -12.2% 21% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage258d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $99 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 -9%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $97 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $101 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $11 −$1 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $34 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $4 $0 -10%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $9 $0 -3%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy by Friday? Nov 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 24 $14 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $3 −$1 -18%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $58 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $43 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $14 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $43 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $42 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 37h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 37h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 47h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $55 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $57 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $5 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $7 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $37 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $38 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records