Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc83e…ac22 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$159 (-8%) realized +$35 · open −$194
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$55
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$160
politics 49% −$168
sports 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 33% -16.8%
≤30d 10 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 30% -23.1%
≤90d 10 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 30% -23.1%
all 10 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 30% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 30% -23.1%
10% -35.3% 30% -30.5%
15% -41.6% 30% -37.2%
20% -47.3% 0% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$34 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$832
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)10 / 21
History coverage10d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $26 +$12 +44%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 21 $176 +$6 +3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 21 $254 −$45 -18%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $31 +$15 +48%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $158 +$3 +2%
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $27 +$13 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 −$7 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 97¢ $40 10m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 97¢ $18 47m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 98¢ $111 54m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 98¢ $31 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 98¢ $96 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 98¢ $12 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 98¢ $115 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 65¢ $13 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 68¢ $26 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 33¢ $13 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $182 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 84¢ $11 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 84¢ $58 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY No 91¢ $186 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 24¢ $49 2h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 21¢ $9 2h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 55¢ $4 39h
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $1 2d
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $4 2d
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $832.27 · official $832.27 (match) · 100 history records