Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C8 0xc840…557f crypto 388 markets active 6h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%259W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$4
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$31
sports 0% −$38
other 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 +0.8% -8.8% 72% 57% -9.6%
≤30d 324 +2.9% -6.9% 66% 55% -10.0%
≤90d 324 +2.9% -6.9% 66% 55% -10.0%
all 388 +5.9% -4.2% 67% 54% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 54% -9.9%
10% -13.4% 37% -18.5%
15% -21.7% 29% -26.4%
20% -29.4% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses259 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)388 / 388
History coverage222d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 388 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$19 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $38 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 981 history records