Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc845…13b2 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$82
sports 50% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.6% -8.9% 60% 47% -9.7%
≤30d 30 +0.6% -8.9% 60% 47% -9.7%
≤90d 30 +0.6% -8.9% 60% 47% -9.7%
all 30 +0.6% -8.9% 60% 47% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 47% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 37% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 23% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $61 +$27 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 +$15 +29%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $64 −$18 -28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $83 +$7 +9%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $62 +$27 +44%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $40 +$16 +41%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $67 −$58 -87%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$8 -16%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $38 +$1 +3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $59 −$6 -10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $39 −$27 -71%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $45 −$7 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $28 +$11 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $93 −$43 -46%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$4 -40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $148 +$15 +10%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 −$4 -12%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 +$1 +13%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 +$7 +46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $16 +$5 +32%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 +$4 +9%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $21 +$9 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $88 11m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 11m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $13 28m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $13 28m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $12 28m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 29m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $0 29m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $23 29m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $9 29m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 31m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 40m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 41m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 83¢ $30 42m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $40 43m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $90 45m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 56m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Under 72¢ $13 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $32 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 91¢ $63 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $58 19h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $57 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $31 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 50¢ $31 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 19h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $40 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $9 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records