Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C8 0xc846…62cd crypto 73 markets active 1d ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-4%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%41W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$14
other 21% −$92
sports 13% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -9.7% -18.3% 51% 40% -10.7%
≤30d 43 -9.7% -18.3% 51% 40% -10.7%
≤90d 43 -9.7% -18.3% 51% 40% -10.7%
all 73 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 48% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 48% -14.9%
10% -27.7% 29% -23.1%
15% -34.7% 22% -30.5%
20% -41.1% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses41 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage148d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$11 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $122 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 12 $75 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 12 $72 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 12 $120 +$20 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 12 $47 +$6 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $100 26h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $93 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records