Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C8 0xc846…c413 sports 1520 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$2,954 (+11%) realized +$2,849 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%656W / 624L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day113.1pace
Fees−$414est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$8,920
other 4% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 635 +7.6% -2.6% 44% 43% +30.1%
≤30d 1280 +22.9% +11.2% 51% 50% +28.0%
≤90d 1280 +22.9% +11.2% 51% 50% +28.0%
all 1280 +22.9% +11.2% 51% 50% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.2% 50% +28.0%
10% ← realistic here +0.6% 49% +15.7%
15% -9.1% 45% +4.6%
20% -18.0% 41% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,521
Realized+$2,849
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses656 / 624
Est. fees paid−$414
Open positions60
Markets (closed)1280 / 1520
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day113.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 1280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Cloud9 17¢ 100¢ $27 $158 +$131 (+488%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Red Feet 33¢ 50¢ $28 $43 +$15 (+53%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Over 48¢ 74¢ $21 $33 +$11 (+54%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Arizona Diamondbacks 38¢ 44¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+14%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 43¢ 46¢ $28 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) Phoenix Mercury 41¢ 42¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 68¢ 69¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 58¢ 57¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 64¢ 64¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 48¢ 48¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 22¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Miami Marlins 43¢ 44¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ 58¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 50¢ 48¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Atlanta Braves 47¢ 46¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 47¢ 44¢ $28 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Seattle Mariners 51¢ 49¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 38¢ 36¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Washington Nationals 39¢ 40¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 57¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 60¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 427 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-24? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-05-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Gimnasia vs. Ferro Carril Oeste Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 157.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 27 $5 +$5 +119%
Burgos CF vs. FC Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-31? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Ser Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-05-21? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5 Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-20? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $8 13m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 13m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $10 14m
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $18 16m
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 41¢ $1 17m
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 41¢ $11 23m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $3 26m
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman BUY Oscar Weightman 22¢ $5 28m
Set Handicap: Arnaboldi (-1.5) vs Tabacco (+1.5) BUY Tabacco 57¢ $5 56m
Fausto Tabacco vs. Federico Arnaboldi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 56¢ $5 56m
ITF Bergamo: Fausto Tabacco vs Federico Arnaboldi BUY Fausto Tabacco 37¢ $0 1h
ITF Bergamo: Fausto Tabacco vs Federico Arnaboldi BUY Fausto Tabacco 37¢ $5 1h
Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs. Giovanni Oradini: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 25¢ $5 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 1h
Set Handicap: Oradini (-1.5) vs Scomparin (+1.5) BUY Scomparin 37¢ $5 2h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $1 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $28 2h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 41¢ $1 3h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 41¢ $1 3h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 41¢ $14 3h
ITF Bergamo: Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs Giovanni Oradini BUY Pietro Romeo Scomparin 20¢ $5 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 46¢ $28 3h
Map Handicap: VSC (-1.5) vs Red Feet (+1.5) BUY Red Feet 53¢ $26 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $27 3h
ITF Rzeszow: Stefan Seifert vs Herman Hoeyeraal BUY Stefan Seifert 37¢ $1 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $28 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 17¢ $27 5h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 50¢ $28 6h
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra BUY Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 38¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,520.66 · official $1,520.18 (match) · 3500 history records