Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc848…537b crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$76 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate60%89W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$51
14 days+$46
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$41
other 23% +$3
sports 13% −$59
weather 10% −$5
world 3% −$7
finance 1% −$8
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.9% -14.8% 52% 14% -7.7%
≤30d 51 -11.8% -20.2% 51% 12% -8.2%
≤90d 116 -11.4% -19.9% 59% 16% -9.4%
all 149 -8.6% -17.3% 60% 17% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 17% -9.7%
10% -25.2% 13% -18.3%
15% -32.4% 11% -26.2%
20% -39.0% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses89 / 60
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)149 / 157
History coverage94d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? No 73¢ 74¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $43 $10 −$34 (-78%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 36¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 −$10 -19%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $280 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $40 +$86 +214%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $410 +$6 +1%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $124 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$15 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $130 −$7 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $354 −$57 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $83 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$19 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $246 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $563 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in May? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $69 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $29 +$7 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $32 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $12 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $29 $0 +1%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $54 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $12 +$5 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -32%
Ramp IPO before 2027? May 27 $2 $0 -15%
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2 May 27 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2 $0 -14%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2 $0 -19%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 26 $2 $0 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $2 +$2 +104%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 20m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $3 58m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 74¢ $285 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $140 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $140 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 35¢ $126 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $145 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $56 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.75 · official $75.75 (match) · 1356 history records