Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc84b…9274 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%29W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$511per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$16
other 6% +$2
crypto 5% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 32 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses29 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage214d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 17? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 16 $142 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Apr 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 21 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? Mar 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Mar 11 $192 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 31 $36 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? Jan 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Jan 12 $219 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 31 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 31 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 31 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $10,643 −$11 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $2,667 −$3 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 2h
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $82 2h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 38d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $31 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 70d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 70d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $142 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $54 94d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 104d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 104d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 104d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 104d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 126d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 126d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 143d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $21 143d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $35 143d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 143d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 143d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 143d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $42 162d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 162d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 162d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.75 · official $201.75 (match) · 74 history records