Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc84c…323f other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$6
politics 20% −$3
sports 13% $0
culture 8% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$748) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage94d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 28 $1,250 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 17 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $766 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $757 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $746 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $151 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 30 $148 $0 -0%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $172 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 27m
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $30 35m
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 41m
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $155 1h
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $831 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $341 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,174 2h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 38d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 38d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 38d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 38d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL No 100¢ $11 38d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 39d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL No 100¢ $11 39d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial BUY No 100¢ $23 39d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 41d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 41d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 41d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 41d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 41d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? SELL No 100¢ $48 42d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $773 42d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 42d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $714 42d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records