Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc850…8c51 crypto 471 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,178 (+149%) realized +$9,180 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%246W / 223L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day93.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$814
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 54% -3.2%
≤30d 446 +1.4% -8.2% 51% 48% -4.8%
≤90d 469 +5.3% -4.8% 52% 50% +2.5%
all 469 +5.3% -4.8% 52% 50% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 50% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 46% -7.3%
15% -22.2% 41% -16.3%
20% -29.8% 35% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$9,180
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses246 / 223
Open positions2
Markets (closed)469 / 471
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day93.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 48¢ 24¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$7 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$8 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$4 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$17 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$9 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$28 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$4 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $16 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $10 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.16 · official $16.96 (match) · 3500 history records