Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc851…cd2a
world · 73 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$431,068 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$403,443 · open +$24,846
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$114,483
Realized+$403,443
Unrealized+$24,846
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses39 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)67 / 73
Avg bet$39,695
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 8 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$701
7 days−$701
14 days+$79,959
30 days+$85,954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $52,937 $70,059 +$17,122 (+32%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $23,038 $17,557 −$5,481 (-24%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 12¢ 77¢ $2,295 $14,360 +$12,065 (+526%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $10,159 $11,175 +$1,016 (+10%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $619 $755 +$136 (+22%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $568 $576 +$8 (+1%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? Yes 29¢ 2¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 40¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10,895 $0 −$10,895 (-100%)
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1,001 $0 −$1,001 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,909 $0 −$1,909 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $16,785 $0 −$16,785 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $72,565 $0 −$72,565 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $30,091 $0 −$30,091 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $17 −$701 -4035%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $404,495 +$76,857 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $10,895 −$10,895 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $38,394 +$14,698 +38%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 29 $50,264 +$12,100 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $16,786 −$16,785 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 14 $577 +$7 +1%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $37,401 +$11,513 +31%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $2,535 −$839 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $40,042 −$18,715 -47%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 07 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $9,538 +$1,270 +13%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 05 $1,337 +$635 +48%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? May 04 $2,290 +$783 +34%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $208 +$127 +61%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $17,861 +$54 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1,910 −$1,909 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $91,133 −$71,597 -79%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $17,717 −$14,803 -84%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $29,451 +$217 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $48,202 +$12,789 +26%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $6,859 −$2,020 -30%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 10 $52,532 −$42,326 -81%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 10 $35,889 −$35,889 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $93,186 −$66,423 -71%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $199,337 +$21,915 +11%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $12,977 +$265 +2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $218,467 +$12,158 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $47,250 +$2,750 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $108,726 +$14,546 +13%
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? Mar 30 $715 +$218 +30%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 20 $12,463 −$2,639 -21%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 20 $1,098 −$1,098 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Mar 20 $6,212 −$6,117 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 20 $2,907 −$2,907 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 20 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 20 $15,322 +$269 +2%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 10 $326 +$217 +67%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 10 $8,797 +$1,203 +14%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $68,476 +$7,428 +11%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $423,276 +$7,376 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $284,563 +$178,555 +63%
Will JD Vance clap fewer than 20 times during the State of the Union? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 03 $2,972 +$816 +28%
Will JD Vance clap between 40–49 times during the State of the Union? Mar 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will JD Vance clap between 20–29 times during the State of the Union? Mar 03 $83 −$83 -100%
Will JD Vance clap between 30–39 times during the State of the Union? Mar 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will JD Vance clap between 50–59 times during the State of the Union? Mar 03 $64 −$64 -100%
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $724 −$724 -100%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $11,740 −$11,740 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$297,028
economics 15% +$15,602
other 14% +$13,513
crypto 14% +$77,122
politics 4% +$27,612
sports 0% −$2,907
tech 0% +$1,019
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $14,866 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $8,094 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $297 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $296 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $111 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $222 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,864 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $4,296 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $35 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -15.0% -23.1% 62% 50% +4.4%
≤90d 36 -28.1% -34.9% 53% 33% -16.0%
all 67 -10.0% -18.6% 58% 43% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 43% +3.6%
10% -26.4% 31% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 19% -15.3%
20% -40.0% 15% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114,483.08 · official $114,483.06 (match) · 3500 history records