Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C8 0xc855…690d world 29 markets active 11d ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+3%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$7
weather 16% +$22
sports 14% −$1
other 7% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 5% -8.5%
all 29 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 7% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 7% -6.8%
10% -16.4% 7% -15.7%
15% -24.5% 3% -23.9%
20% -31.9% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.29 per $1 lost it wins $5.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage478d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$3 -26%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $46 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $32 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $32 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $73 −$1 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $52 +$21 +41%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? Mar 03 $52 $0 +0%
SE Louisiana vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Mar 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on February Mar 03 $51 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $1 11d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $20 11d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $22 11d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $41 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $9 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $4 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $9 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $9 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $42 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $43 14d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 15d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 15d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $46 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $47 15d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $22 16d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $25 16d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $47 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records