Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc858…ba6e other 25 markets active 23h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-3%) realized +$2 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$2,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$134
crypto 4% −$31
sports 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 43% -15.1%
≤30d 7 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 43% -15.1%
≤90d 7 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 43% -15.1%
all 7 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 43% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 43% -15.1%
10% -21.0% 43% -23.2%
15% -28.7% 43% -30.6%
20% -35.7% 29% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$27 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,303
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)7 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $400 $459 +$58 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $300 $379 +$79 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $450 $362 −$89 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $313 $251 −$63 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $200 $153 −$47 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $63 $60 −$4 (-6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $22 $32 +$10 (+44%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+16%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-14%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+36%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $29 $15 −$14 (-49%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $43 $9 −$34 (-80%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 +$75 +272%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 25h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $294 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $345 5d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 5d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 5d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,302.68 · official $2,300.83 (match) · 65 history records