Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc859…2f62 politics 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$4
politics 22% $0
other 18% +$4
sports 13% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% −$1
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 56 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage325d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $48 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $94 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $43 −$2 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $17 −$2 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $39 $0 -1%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 20 $4 $0 -7%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 14 $2 $0 -19%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 13 $30 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 395–409 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 12 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Au Aug 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on August 5 at 5P Aug 10 $37 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 06 $0 $0 -2%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 05 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $48 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $48 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $23 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $14 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $28 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $6 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $2 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $36 42h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $48 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $48 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $39 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $39 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $48 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $48 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $15 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $17 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records