Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc863…6427 crypto 398 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%381W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$126
14 days−$149
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$108
weather 22% −$232
tech 4% +$12
other 2% +$27
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.7% -15.5% 82% 82% -18.6%
≤30d 81 -2.5% -11.8% 90% 40% -10.8%
≤90d 185 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 17% -9.6%
all 398 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$70 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses381 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)398 / 398
History coverage245d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 398 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $82 +$17 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $89 +$11 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $116 −$25 -22%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $230? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $32 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $83 +$13 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $82 +$17 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $85 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 9? Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 09 $11 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $84 +$16 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 07 $87 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $89 +$11 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $84 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $88 +$11 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 07 $74 +$26 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $88 +$11 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $90 +$10 +11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $200? Jun 05 $398 +$5 +1%
Will Meta (META) close at <$590 on the final day of trading of the wee Jun 05 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $590? Jun 05 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $501 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $100 −$40 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $501 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $82 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $36 15h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $90 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $90 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $86 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $90 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $74 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $47 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1223 history records