Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc868…7bd7 weather 280 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,711 (+9%) realized +$1,606 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate63%169W / 101L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$1,896
14 days+$1,914
30 days+$1,922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$322
sports 32% +$932
other 9% +$152
world 3% +$168
crypto 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +105.7% +86.1% 78% 17% +84.3%
≤30d 73 +19.1% +7.8% 77% 15% +31.4%
≤90d 244 +0.3% -9.3% 65% 22% +9.1%
all 270 -0.0% -9.5% 63% 24% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 24% -0.7%
10% -18.2% 19% -10.2%
15% -26.1% 14% -18.9%
20% -33.3% 12% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$25 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$2,199
Realized+$1,606
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses169 / 101
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)270 / 280
History coverage112d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $902 $903 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $347 $353 +$6 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $292 $294 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Yes 59¢ 75¢ $188 $240 +$52 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? No 80¢ 100¢ $141 $175 +$35 (+25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $113 $136 +$23 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? No 95¢ 90¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $495 −$20 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $132 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $122 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $402 +$12 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$38 +116%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $95 +$1,853 +1958%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$8 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$12 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$36 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$13 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $113 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$7 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 09 $78 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 8? Jun 08 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 7? Jun 07 $161 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL No 84¢ $135 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL No 86¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL No 84¢ $3 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 63¢ $179 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL No 82¢ $127 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? SELL No 82¢ $54 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $457 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $893 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $77 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $270 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $292 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $39 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $92 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? SELL Yes 95¢ $98 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? SELL Yes 83¢ $80 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? SELL Yes 86¢ $56 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $495 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $49 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,198.64 · official $2,198.93 (match) · 1804 history records