trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $1 | +$1 (+413%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 14 | $80 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $84 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $53 | $0 | +1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $42 | +$1 | +2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $8 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 05 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? | Jun 21 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Silviu Predoiu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo | May 07 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? | May 03 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | May 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump signs national abortion ban? | Apr 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 02 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Apr 02 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 26 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 22 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 75% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +51.4% | +37.0% | 64% | 9% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +51.4% | +37.0% | 64% | 9% | -8.9% |
| all | 25 | +14.8% | +3.9% | 56% | 4% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.9% | 4% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -6.0% | 4% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -15.1% | 4% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -23.4% | 4% | -33.2% |