Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc869…c832 world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,787 (-4%) realized −$1,793 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate83%64W / 13L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$389
14 days−$355
30 days−$1,428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$2,330
other 10% +$10
politics 10% +$116
sports 7% +$298
economics 7% +$129
finance 5% +$90
tech 1% −$12
crypto 1% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 76% 35% -16.0%
≤30d 31 -1.9% -11.3% 74% 29% -17.1%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 81% 20% -13.2%
all 77 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 21% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 21% -13.6%
10% -17.6% 9% -21.9%
15% -25.5% 5% -29.5%
20% -32.8% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$797) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$315 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$2,419
Realized−$1,793
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses64 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)77 / 88
History coverage138d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? No 72¢ 84¢ $429 $502 +$73 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $320 $337 +$17 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $320 $297 −$23 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 92¢ 76¢ $319 $262 −$56 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $194 $215 +$21 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $226 $211 −$15 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $176 $167 −$9 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $166 $133 −$33 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $108 $127 +$19 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $79 $89 +$11 (+14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $629 +$45 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $181 −$1 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $624 +$56 +9%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 +$3 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $302 −$277 -92%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $659 +$41 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $167 +$23 +14%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $233 +$67 +29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $491 +$36 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $162 +$58 +36%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $477 +$30 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $381 +$24 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $536 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 04 $171 +$29 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $950 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $320 +$80 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,126 −$153 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 29 $106 +$3 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 28 $2,169 +$18 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $393 +$4 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,143 +$57 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $2,457 +$114 +5%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 26 $1,173 −$1,173 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $40 +$5 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 19 $399 −$11 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 19 $239 −$25 -11%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $1,009 +$9 +1%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $470 +$50 +11%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $124 +$11 +9%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $91 +$6 +6%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $128 +$13 +10%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $319 +$7 +2%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $28 +$10 +37%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $204 +$19 +10%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $250 −$108 -43%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $31 −$15 -47%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $202 −$62 -31%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $457 +$19 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $458 +$3 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 06 $994 +$23 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 30 $253 +$13 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 30 $634 +$66 +10%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $674 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $629 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $180 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $181 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $38 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $679 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $24 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $25 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $322 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $301 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL No 87¢ $29 40h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $699 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $190 40h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 99¢ $7 40h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 73¢ $1 40h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 73¢ $4 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $151 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $16 40h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $659 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 41h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $491 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $233 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $162 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,418.64 · official $2,418.64 (match) · 423 history records