Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc86b…6e26 sports 31 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$810 (-27%) realized −$806 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$644
other 11% −$52
weather 5% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 31% -36.2%
≤30d 26 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 31% -36.2%
≤90d 26 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 31% -36.2%
all 26 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 31% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 31% -36.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 23% -42.3%
15% -34.1% 23% -47.9%
20% -40.6% 19% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$80 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$879
Realized−$806
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$61 +599%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 −$59 -58%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $202 −$101 -50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 +$52 +103%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $51 −$13 -26%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $201 +$41 +20%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$61 +61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$41 +40%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 +$108 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $100 +$8 +8%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $101 +$20 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $151 −$145 -96%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $244 +$123 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 −$89 -44%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $151 −$59 -39%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$31 -61%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$37 -36%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $152 −$150 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $43 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $101 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 81¢ $103 3h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 21¢ $38 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 9h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 9h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 9h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 9h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $102 9h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 27¢ $51 9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $202 9h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL No $6 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY 33¢ $51 16h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 16h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $29 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $338 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $113 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $193 19h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $92 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $20 20h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 24¢ $65 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.73 · official $927.88 · 49 history records