Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc86b…c791 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,253 (+47%) realized +$6,264 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$554per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$6,339
other 1% −$30
crypto 1% −$52
world 0% +$8
politics 0% −$30
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤30d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤90d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -39.0%
all 23 -21.8% -29.2% 48% 43% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 43% +33.1%
10% -36.0% 43% +20.4%
15% -42.2% 39% +8.8%
20% -47.9% 22% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$779 vs −$193 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$6,264
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage552d
Avg bet$554
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 72¢ 44¢ $27 $17 −$11 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 21 $22 +$10 +44%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spurs vs. Lakers Mar 13 $25 +$10 +39%
Oilers vs. Blues Mar 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Feb 10 $12 +$21 +170%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 10 $37 +$3 +9%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $6,000 +$4,000 +67%
Celtics vs. Wizards Dec 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Bears vs. Vikings Nov 17 $2,604 +$3,596 +138%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $2,130 +$870 +41%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 05 $2,048 −$2,048 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September? Sep 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Aug 02 $21 +$12 +56%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Aug 02 $42 +$19 +45%
Commanders vs. Lions Feb 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Feb 23 $30 +$8 +27%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 19 $33 −$33 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons Jan 13 $23 −$23 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 13 $27 +$18 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 72¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $22 37d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 67¢ $25 66d
Oilers vs. Blues BUY Oilers 57¢ $33 99d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Spurs 72¢ $25 131d
Ravens vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 37¢ $12 171d
Celtics vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 22¢ $44 198d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Lions 60¢ $6,000 198d
Bears vs. Vikings BUY Bears 42¢ $1,344 216d
Bears vs. Vikings BUY Bears 42¢ $1,260 216d
Buccaneers vs. Lions BUY Lions 71¢ $2,130 243d
Tigers vs. Mariners BUY Mariners 64¢ $2,048 259d
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September? BUY No 31¢ $3 287d
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September? BUY No 31¢ $15 287d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 306d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? BUY No 10¢ $10 312d
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 317d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $37 323d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 64¢ $21 446d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 69¢ $42 482d
Commanders vs. Lions BUY Lions 55¢ $24 518d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar BUY Yes 79¢ $30 522d
Yoon arrested by January 31? BUY No 55¢ $33 524d
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? BUY Yes 43¢ $23 524d
Heat vs. Pistons BUY Heat 65¢ $23 552d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY 76ers 61¢ $27 552d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.53 · official $16.53 (match) · 43 history records