Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc86d…22ac world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$10
politics 28% +$2
sports 19% +$1
other 16% −$7
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.7% -12.0% 29% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 55 +34.3% +21.5% 29% 4% -9.8%
all 59 +30.4% +18.0% 32% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 3% -10.1%
10% +6.7% 2% -18.7%
15% -3.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -13.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage526d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 44¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $50 −$9 -17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $57 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $93 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $104 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? May 18 $42 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 18 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $174 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $54 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $62 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $24 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $40 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $46 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $47 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 28 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $42 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $43 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $44 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.72 · official $39.15 · 260 history records