Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:04:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc874…dbe0 sports 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%10W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$7
other 20% −$3
politics 18% −$2
economics 9% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 5% +$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 179 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses10 / 169
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage173d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $32 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $108 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $276 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $219 −$3 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $278 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 13d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $31 27d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $32 27d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $35 39d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $35 42d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 125d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $37 125d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $37 125d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 125d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $37 125d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $38 125d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $38 125d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 125d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $36 125d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $36 125d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $36 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 125d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 93¢ $6 125d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 125d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $6 125d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 125d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 125d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $39 125d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $39 125d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $39 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.51 · official $40.51 (match) · 648 history records