Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C8 0xc876…9903 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,880 (+6%) realized +$3,124 · open −$1,244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 53L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,277
7 days+$878
14 days+$1,622
30 days+$1,622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$1,050
other 38% −$740
world 2% −$711
crypto 1% +$778
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +15.3% +4.3% 37% 37% -6.0%
≤30d 82 +11.9% +1.3% 35% 35% -3.6%
≤90d 82 +11.9% +1.3% 35% 35% -3.6%
all 82 +11.9% +1.3% 35% 35% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 35% -3.6%
10% -8.4% 35% -12.8%
15% -17.3% 35% -21.2%
20% -25.4% 32% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +76% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$192 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3,146
Realized+$3,124
Unrealized−$1,244
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions11
Markets (closed)82 / 93
History coverage9d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $500 $847 +$347 (+69%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $550 $566 +$16 (+3%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $500 $517 +$17 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $110 $180 +$70 (+64%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 67¢ 0¢ $1,500 $1 −$1,499 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$69 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $710 +$636 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $558 +$522 +94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,063 +$577 +54%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,162 −$1,150 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $608 −$600 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 18 $506 −$506 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$507 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$507 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $608 −$608 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 18 $609 −$609 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $711 −$711 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $1,073 −$1,073 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 18 $236 −$236 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,116 −$1,100 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$116 +226%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$60 +119%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$76 +250%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $507 +$436 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$579 +114%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $506 +$314 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$265 +1290%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $507 +$436 +86%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $609 +$568 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $41 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $111 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $505 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $1,010 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $506 9h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 9h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 9h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $710 34h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $507 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 36h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $51 37h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $51 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $41 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,145.75 · official $3,145.75 (match) · 149 history records