Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc876…a23d crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$198 (-78%) realized −$201 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -37.1% -43.1% 43% 29% -96.2%
≤30d 7 -37.1% -43.1% 43% 29% -96.2%
≤90d 7 -37.1% -43.1% 43% 29% -96.2%
all 7 -37.1% -43.1% 43% 29% -96.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 29% -96.2%
10% -48.5% 29% -96.6%
15% -53.5% 29% -96.9%
20% -58.0% 29% -97.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$51 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 47¢ 50¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.38 · official $43.38 (match) · 14 history records