Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C8 0xc878…a6f3 weather 269 markets active 6h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$380 (+17%) realized +$387 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%100W / 167L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$102
14 days+$253
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$316
crypto 0% −$11
tech 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 38% +1.9%
≤30d 133 -1.2% -10.7% 41% 34% +2.4%
≤90d 267 +17.3% +6.2% 37% 31% +3.2%
all 267 +17.3% +6.2% 37% 31% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 31% +3.2%
10% -4.0% 27% -6.7%
15% -13.3% 22% -15.7%
20% -21.8% 20% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$387
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses100 / 167
Open positions2
Markets (closed)267 / 269
History coverage67d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$20 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$24 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$39 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $64 +$85 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $34 −$20 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $63 +$41 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $49 −$35 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$8 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$4 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$6 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$23 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $87 +$30 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $45 +$9 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $9 −$8 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $41 −$23 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$49 +831%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$40 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $76 +$29 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $46 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $20 −$16 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 −$9 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$6 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 13¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 31¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 52¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $37 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 45¢ $14 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $16 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.65 · official $34.65 (match) · 1073 history records