Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc87a…af4f crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$205 (-29%) realized −$198 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$216
tech 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.7% -26.5% 42% 33% -39.3%
≤30d 12 -18.7% -26.5% 42% 33% -39.3%
≤90d 12 -18.7% -26.5% 42% 33% -39.3%
all 12 -18.7% -26.5% 42% 33% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 33% -39.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 33% -45.1%
15% -39.9% 25% -50.4%
20% -45.8% 25% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$66 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$198
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$40 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$92 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$109 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $145 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $213 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 3h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 3h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.54 · official $18.37 (match) · 26 history records