Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc87c…0b0a other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$329 (-4%) realized −$36 · open −$293
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%42W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$37
14 days−$6
30 days−$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$21
crypto 27% −$112
world 20% +$3
politics 5% −$229
finance 2% −$142
economics 2% +$54
sports 2% −$87
tech 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.2% -16.0% 67% 33% +2.7%
≤30d 16 -40.6% -46.3% 38% 31% -44.6%
≤90d 23 -22.6% -30.0% 48% 39% -25.8%
all 61 -1.7% -11.1% 69% 54% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 54% -12.4%
10% -19.6% 36% -20.8%
15% -27.3% 30% -28.4%
20% -34.5% 16% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$92 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$556
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$293
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses42 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage171d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $193 $275 +$82 (+43%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $132 $122 −$10 (-8%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 65¢ 47¢ $89 $64 −$25 (-28%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Yes 73¢ 21¢ $200 $58 −$142 (-71%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $117 +$83 +70%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $55 −$54 -98%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Jun 26 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $143 +$57 +40%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $77 −$76 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $80 −$78 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 +$64 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$98 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $135 −$134 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$70 +70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $138 +$62 +45%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? May 09 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $93 +$7 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $200 −$34 -17%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $550 −$2 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $100 +$56 +56%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 04 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $100 +$5 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $100 +$34 +34%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $100 +$42 +42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24? Mar 31 $90 −$90 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Mar 31 $20 +$14 +70%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in February? Mar 31 $100 +$20 +20%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 31 $100 +$20 +20%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 31 $150 +$84 +56%
Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 26 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $14 +$2 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Feb 25 $83 +$5 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 24 $150 −$146 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-21? Feb 24 $100 +$18 +18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 18 $55 +$20 +37%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 18 $100 +$49 +49%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February? Feb 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $200 +$94 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Solana dip to $90 in February? Feb 05 $150 +$92 +61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in February? Feb 02 $200 +$44 +22%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $79 +$21 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $200 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $134 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 3d
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? SELL No 88¢ $108 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 13d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 13d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $80 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 16d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $198 17d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $143 17d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 17d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 17d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 17d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 17d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $93 37d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 93¢ $11 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 93¢ $69 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 93¢ $13 82d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 82d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY Yes 82¢ $23 82d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 82d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? BUY Yes 73¢ $200 82d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 73¢ $166 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 99¢ $548 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $550 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.44 · official $556.44 (match) · 158 history records