Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc87f…c8c3 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$52 (-8%) realized −$30 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$151
crypto 20% −$121
sports 20% +$123
other 15% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 33% -19.6%
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 33% -19.6%
≤90d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 33% -19.6%
all 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 33% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 33% -19.6%
10% -19.0% 33% -27.3%
15% -26.8% 33% -34.3%
20% -34.0% 33% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$76 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage178d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $285 $436 +$151 (+53%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $83 +$123 +148%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $135 −$121 -90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$32 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.88 · official $530.90 (match) · 18 history records