Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc881…e370 sports 105 markets active 18h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,024 (-12%) realized −$1,024 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%44W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$542
7 days−$1,200
14 days−$1,142
30 days−$1,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1,320
crypto 25% +$161
sports 10% +$90
other 2% −$51
tech 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 32% -32.9%
≤30d 72 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 35% -25.4%
≤90d 95 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 36% -17.4%
all 105 +3.2% -6.6% 42% 36% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 36% -16.7%
10% -15.5% 33% -24.7%
15% -23.7% 30% -32.0%
20% -31.2% 19% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$38 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,024
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 61
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage145d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$18 +174%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,342 −$492 -37%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$10 +197%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +126%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$15 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$11 -35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$21 +139%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$18 +89%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +47%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$11 +53%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$30 +587%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$19 +95%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$25 +81%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,106 −$794 -72%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$156 +1519%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$46 +227%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +81%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $28 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $20 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $20 20h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 22h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $11 23h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 96¢ $30 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $20 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $37 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $15 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $15 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 31h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records