Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C8 0xc881…9f44 sports 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$878 (+3%) realized +$932 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate62%60W / 37L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$555
other 2% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.1% -25.9% 75% 25% -25.9%
≤30d 20 -37.2% -43.2% 45% 20% -69.8%
≤90d 97 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 27% -7.8%
all 97 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 27% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 27% -7.8%
10% -25.8% 16% -16.6%
15% -33.0% 13% -24.7%
20% -39.6% 8% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$78 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$932
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses60 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage82d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas - Completed match? Yes 99¢ 50¢ $79 $40 −$39 (-49%)
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Mi New York 100¢ 48¢ $29 $14 −$15 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $1 $0 +34%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will England win? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $44 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $203 −$2 -1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $123 −$120 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $222 −$220 -99%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? May 24 $218 −$182 -84%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $422 −$50 -12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $204 +$41 +20%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $58 −$57 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $1,194 −$23 -2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians - Toss May 20 $52 −$2 -5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $796 +$143 +18%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $252 +$27 +11%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $291 −$46 -16%
T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 0.5 May 17 $94 +$2 +2%
T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 1.5 May 17 $512 +$13 +3%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans - Compl May 17 $40 +$1 +2%
T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5 May 17 $511 +$8 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $416 −$15 -4%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 16 $170 +$4 +2%
T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5 May 16 $33 +$1 +4%
T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5 May 16 $273 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $1,004 −$14 -1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Completed matc May 14 $10 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $340 −$135 -40%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $1,503 −$3 -0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? May 13 $228 +$29 +13%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $1,705 −$5 -0%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $1,586 +$90 +6%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants - C May 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan - Match go May 10 $35 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Compl May 08 $997 +$2 +0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $102 −$95 -93%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $323 −$321 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $1,680 −$375 -22%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $803 +$116 +14%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $540 −$374 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas - Completed BUY Yes 99¢ $79 1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 100¢ $29 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 98¢ $1 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $1 2d
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 55¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 93¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 91¢ $1 4d
Will England win? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 74¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 99¢ $1 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 50¢ $25 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 72¢ $4 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 11¢ $2 8d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 47¢ $11 8d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 64¢ $10 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $2 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $2 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $0 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $6 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc BUY Yes 99¢ $44 8d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $33 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 55¢ $168 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $203 23d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 5¢ $21 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 34¢ $102 25d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 13¢ $33 26d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 13¢ $19 26d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 72¢ $222 28d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.32 · official $54.32 (match) · 418 history records