Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc883…4ea1 crypto 1797 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$330 (+2%) realized +$421 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%1106W / 793L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day54.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$489
7 days−$477
14 days+$62
30 days+$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$868
crypto 36% +$69
world 10% +$25
other 10% −$8
politics 1% +$25
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -72.8% -75.4% 21% 20% -24.8%
≤30d 504 -21.9% -29.3% 56% 50% -4.7%
≤90d 1899 -6.1% -15.1% 58% 55% -7.7%
all 1899 -6.1% -15.1% 58% 55% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 55% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 50% -16.5%
15% -30.6% 42% -24.6%
20% -37.4% 36% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$695
Realized+$421
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses1106 / 793
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1899 / 1797
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1899 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 68¢ 95¢ $142 $198 +$57 (+40%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 76¢ 53¢ $106 $74 −$31 (-30%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 73¢ 99¢ $50 $67 +$18 (+35%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 69¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 100¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+29%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 83¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 84¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 45¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 69¢ 2¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 74¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -201%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$5 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $80 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $21 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 72¢ $32 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $50 6h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 75¢ $77 7h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $32 8h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 71¢ $39 8h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 89¢ $68 10h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 89¢ $12 10h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 88¢ $80 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 67¢ $4 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 67¢ $6 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $15 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 77¢ $24 12h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 89¢ $37 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 66¢ $58 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 65¢ $3 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 73¢ $31 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 73¢ $32 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $80 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $56 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $13 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $11 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 69¢ $80 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 85¢ $18 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $28 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 72¢ $45 21h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $4 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $70 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.67 · official $694.70 (match) · 3500 history records