trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $225,304 | +$2,046 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Jun 02 | $30,270 | +$1,305 | +4% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | May 29 | $3,536 | −$3,536 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $75,443 | −$75,441 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | May 29 | $68,801 | −$68,801 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | May 29 | $73,843 | −$73,843 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | May 29 | $2,125 | −$2,125 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | May 28 | $1,909 | −$1,909 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | May 28 | $12,247 | −$12,247 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 25 | $6,146 | −$2,379 | -39% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | May 24 | $615 | −$615 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 10 | $86,583 | +$12,033 | +14% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | May 05 | $796,500 | +$3,500 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Apr 24 | $5,453 | −$5,453 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 100% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -75.8% | -78.1% | 18% | 0% | -52.5% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -65.7% | -68.9% | 29% | 7% | -24.3% |
| all | 14 | -65.7% | -68.9% | 29% | 7% | -24.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -68.9% | 7% | -24.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -71.9% | 0% | -31.6% |
| 15% | -74.6% | 0% | -38.2% |
| 20% | -77.1% | 0% | -44.3% |