Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C8 0xc886…87c2 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$147 (+7%) realized +$266 · open −$119

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$328per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 179d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+22.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	+34.8%	+22.0%	100%	67%	+1.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.0%	67%	+1.0%
10%	+10.3%	67%	-8.6%
15%	-0.4%	67%	-17.5%
20%	-10.1%	33%	-25.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 77% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$49 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage

Net worth$581

Realized+$266

Unrealized−$119

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage179d

Avg bet$328

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	60¢	$500	$393	−$107 (-21%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	9¢	18¢	$100	$188	+$88 (+88%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Magic vs. Warriors	Dec 23	$200	+$113	+56%
Spurs vs. Wizards	Dec 22	$1,007	+$11	+1%
Suns vs. Warriors	Dec 22	$50	+$24	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$503	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	1h
Magic vs. Warriors	BUY Warriors	64¢	$200	176d
Spurs vs. Wizards	BUY Spurs	99¢	$784	177d
Spurs vs. Wizards	BUY Spurs	100¢	$100	177d
Spurs vs. Wizards	BUY Spurs	97¢	$123	177d
Suns vs. Warriors	BUY Warriors	68¢	$50	179d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.98 · official $580.98 (match) · 11 history records