Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C8 0xc889…4903 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$101 (-3%) realized −$84 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$266
other 29% −$118
crypto 7% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% -10.4%
≤30d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% -10.4%
≤90d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% -10.4%
all 12 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 50% -10.4%
10% -20.2% 42% -18.9%
15% -27.9% 8% -26.8%
20% -35.0% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$146 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes $23 $6 −$17 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $303 +$52 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $253 −$249 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $243 +$86 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$38 -25%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $61 +$224 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $300 +$77 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $116 −$114 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $883 +$214 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $503 +$137 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 −$250 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 81¢ $355 57m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $32 59m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $63 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $303 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $51 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria $1 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 56¢ $253 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 84¢ $41 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 84¢ $20 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 84¢ $4 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 84¢ $100 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 83¢ $113 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 83¢ $16 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 83¢ $1 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 83¢ $1 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 83¢ $16 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 83¢ $1 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 83¢ $16 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $243 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $115 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $153 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $61 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $116 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $300 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $883 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $640 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.57 · official $6.66 · 36 history records