Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc88c…f67d sports 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$555 (-12%) realized −$555 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%186W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$30
14 days+$32
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$338
other 23% −$144
crypto 9% −$45
finance 2% −$33
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +50.9% +36.6% 65% 58% +0.7%
≤30d 56 +36.7% +23.7% 68% 61% +1.8%
≤90d 116 +1.4% -8.3% 57% 47% -29.5%
all 306 -0.8% -10.3% 61% 48% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 48% -20.3%
10% -18.8% 38% -27.9%
15% -26.7% 28% -34.9%
20% -33.9% 18% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$555
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses186 / 120
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)306 / 314
History coverage121d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $4 −$3 -67%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +17%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 $0 -33%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$4 -89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 +$5 +1900%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +18%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $4 +$3 +57%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $1 $0 +17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 01 $5 +$3 +55%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $3 +$2 +70%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 May 31 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$2 +17%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 58m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AN BUY 48¢ $3 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears $0 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 10¢ $1 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 83¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY 49¢ $15 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears 18¢ $1 2h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 57¢ $3 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 85¢ $5 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 68¢ $5 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over $0 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY 66¢ $10 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY 57¢ $7 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $6 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $0 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 32h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 40h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $5 40h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals SELL No 81¢ $1 41h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 42h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 42h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $9 42h
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $1 42h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 42h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 32¢ $1 43h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 51¢ $4 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $19.48 · 710 history records