Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc88e…67f2 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-4%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$120
economics 44% −$80
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.0% -19.4% 0% 0% -20.6%
≤30d 5 -11.0% -19.4% 0% 0% -20.6%
≤90d 5 -11.0% -19.4% 0% 0% -20.6%
all 5 -11.0% -19.4% 0% 0% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -20.6%
10% -27.1% 0% -28.2%
15% -34.2% 0% -35.2%
20% -40.6% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$40 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 19 $433 −$106 -24%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 18 $470 −$52 -11%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $249 −$28 -11%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $474 −$14 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 53¢ $85 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 54¢ $242 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $433 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $418 23h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 47¢ $470 23h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 16¢ $221 27h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 17¢ $249 27h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 69¢ $460 32h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 70¢ $474 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records