Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc88e…f3e1 other 59 markets active 5h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (172 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$91,233 (-16%) realized −$64,591 · open −$26,642
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,699per market
Trades / day172.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$395,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$31,479
politics 22% $0
world 3% +$183
crypto 1% +$1,579
sports 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (172 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -39.0% -44.8% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 46 +34.6% +21.8% 30% 15% -11.3%
≤90d 46 +34.6% +21.8% 30% 15% -11.3%
all 46 +34.6% +21.8% 30% 15% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover172.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.8% 15% -11.3%
10% +10.1% 13% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here -0.5% 11% -27.5%
20% -10.3% 11% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$940) neutral
Persistence
early +65% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
37.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$852 vs −$504 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$395,499
Realized−$64,591
Unrealized−$26,642
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions38
Markets (closed)46 / 59
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$9,699
Trades / day172.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 85¢ $119,368 $115,937 −$3,431 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $87,496 $85,529 −$1,966 (-2%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $22,783 $23,470 +$687 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $22,500 $22,875 +$375 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $15,585 $16,389 +$805 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $19,947 $14,211 −$5,736 (-29%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 81¢ 78¢ $13,533 $12,929 −$604 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $13,355 $12,879 −$476 (-4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $12,669 $12,845 +$176 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $9,400 $9,955 +$555 (+6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 94¢ 91¢ $9,052 $8,823 −$229 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 90¢ 87¢ $9,010 $8,695 −$315 (-3%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 90¢ 97¢ $5,515 $5,997 +$483 (+9%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 71¢ 46¢ $8,162 $5,292 −$2,870 (-35%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 69¢ 52¢ $6,950 $5,250 −$1,700 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4,998 $5,162 +$164 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 75¢ 66¢ $5,614 $4,987 −$627 (-11%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 49¢ 32¢ $7,292 $4,725 −$2,567 (-35%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,825 $3,237 +$413 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2,842 $2,825 −$17 (-1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 56¢ 24¢ $5,597 $2,350 −$3,247 (-58%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 25¢ 20¢ $2,489 $2,050 −$438 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2,304 $1,926 −$378 (-16%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $3,534 $1,666 −$1,868 (-53%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,236 $1,494 +$259 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 24 $626 −$626 -100%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,139 +$6 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $150,000 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,700 +$119 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $22 +$945 +4354%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $800 −$779 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $705 −$705 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $1,187 −$1,187 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $2,159 −$2,159 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $255 −$255 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $248 −$248 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $690 −$690 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $571 −$571 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $192 −$192 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $544 +$8,279 +1523%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $580 +$420 +72%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $848 +$252 +30%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $230 −$230 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $545 −$545 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $418 −$418 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $911 −$911 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2,928 −$2,928 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $74 +$496 +669%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $24,249 +$322 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $341 +$38 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $2,275 +$28 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6,293 +$88 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $11,351 +$182 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $940 $0 -0%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $470 +$28 +6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $270 +$730 +270%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $66 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $731 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5,000 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2,797 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $78 5h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,750 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $376 16h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,595 16h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $9,258 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $378 20h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $1,140 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $776 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 20h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 20h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $21 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $913 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $50 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395,498.63 · official $395,497.91 (match) · 3500 history records