Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc88f…d893 crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,542 (-5%) realized −$2,542 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%80W / 50L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,384
7 days+$714
14 days+$714
30 days+$714
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$3,518
other 20% −$1,596
sports 3% +$2,313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -36.6% -42.6% 20% 20% -2.8%
≤30d 10 -36.6% -42.6% 20% 20% -2.8%
≤90d 10 -36.6% -42.6% 20% 20% -2.8%
all 130 -5.3% -14.4% 62% 40% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 40% -14.0%
10% -22.5% 32% -22.3%
15% -30.0% 25% -29.8%
20% -36.9% 20% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$212 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,542
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses80 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage122d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,982 −$41 -1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,485 +$2,313 +156%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$3 -33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,058 −$568 -28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,011 +$423 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $250 −$204 -82%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $609 −$526 -86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $597 −$570 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 07 $120 +$50 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 07 $314 +$120 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 07 $63 −$43 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 07 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 07 $110 +$35 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 07 $312 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 07 $293 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 06 $50 −$38 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 06 $224 +$107 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 06 $30 +$30 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 06 $167 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 06 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 06 $163 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 06 $40 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 06 $50 +$33 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 06 $20 +$31 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 06 $40 −$27 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 06 $20 +$22 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 06 $40 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 06 $93 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 06 $71 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 05 $40 +$34 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 05 $30 +$68 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 05 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 05 $50 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 05 $20 +$25 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 04 $50 +$33 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 04 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 04 $50 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 04 $30 +$41 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 04 $150 +$94 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 04 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 04 $294 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,470 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,472 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $594 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $616 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,260 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,510 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,798 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,485 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,491 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,553 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,434 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,011 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $38 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $83 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $609 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $292 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $170 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $120 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 249 history records