Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc895…5072 sports 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$3
other 23% −$3
politics 16% −$2
economics 12% −$1
crypto 9% −$1
culture 7% −$1
world 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 125 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage155d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $74 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $32 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 21 $70 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $144 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $123 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $131 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $136 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $189 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $221 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $81 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $41 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 13d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 13d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $32 21d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $32 21d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 35d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 118d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $36 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $36 118d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $7 118d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $7 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $35 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $35 118d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $42 118d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $42 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 118d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 118d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1 118d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 118d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $34 118d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $34 118d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $41 118d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $41 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $39 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $39 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.74 · official $40.74 (match) · 587 history records