Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C8 0xc895…6385 culture 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
RISKYcopy with care culture specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+6%) realized +$66 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$40
14 days+$49
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 76% +$133
other 24% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -4.4% -13.5% 83% 50% -1.6%
≤90d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 38% -1.4%
all 8 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 38% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 38% -1.4%
10% -18.9% 25% -10.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -19.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage67d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 11? Yes 69¢ 84¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 4? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $252 +$39 +16%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # Jun 15 $202 +$50 +25%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in June? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 07 $181 +$16 +9%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in May? May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 27 $166 +$15 +9%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for Apr 28 $154 +$15 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song BUY Yes 60¢ $102 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 7d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 89¢ $201 10d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 75¢ $51 11d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # SELL Yes 99¢ $252 13d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 79¢ $152 21d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 75¢ $51 21d
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in June? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 27d
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 91¢ $181 27d
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in May? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 30d
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 32d
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? BUY Yes 91¢ $166 39d
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for BUY Yes 91¢ $132 66d
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for BUY Yes 88¢ $15 66d
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for BUY Yes 88¢ $7 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.29 · official $243.29 (match) · 24 history records