Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc899…c3c1 sports 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-6%) realized −$139 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate74%59W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$28
14 days−$12
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$158
other 11% +$13
politics 5% −$20
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -5.3% -14.3% 74% 11% -11.8%
≤30d 80 -7.2% -16.0% 74% 31% -14.8%
≤90d 80 -7.2% -16.0% 74% 31% -14.8%
all 80 -7.2% -16.0% 74% 31% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 31% -14.8%
10% -24.1% 16% -23.0%
15% -31.4% 11% -30.4%
20% -38.1% 1% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses59 / 21
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)80 / 85
History coverage35d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 55¢ 42¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 88¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Azure Dragon Gaming 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $60 +$4 +6%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Jun 24 $56 +$6 +10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 24 $40 +$1 +3%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seas Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun Jun 24 $50 +$5 +10%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $38 −$28 -73%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $60 +$2 +4%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $150 −$8 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $45 +$2 +5%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula Jun 23 $40 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Valorant: Elevate vs F4TALITY (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 22 $10 −$8 -76%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $80 +$5 +7%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $60 −$17 -28%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $10 +$1 +5%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Valorant: INTZ vs EGO (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B Jun 18 $60 +$2 +4%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $35 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 18 $20 −$8 -42%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $118 +$4 +3%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $10 −$6 -57%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $50 +$10 +19%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +7%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $376 −$87 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +10%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $130 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North SELL Azure Dragon Gaming 74¢ $4 0m
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 82¢ $10 6m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL Keyd 100¢ $55 7m
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D SELL REBORN 100¢ $62 7m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 95¢ $28 23m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 92¢ $12 25m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL Keyd 75¢ $9 35m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 85¢ $10 54m
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 78¢ $10 59m
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D BUY REBORN 93¢ $36 1h
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D BUY REBORN 89¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $41 1h
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D BUY REBORN 83¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun SELL Alzon 99¢ $55 19h
Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seas BUY LYON 95¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun BUY Alzon 93¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun BUY Alzon 87¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun BUY Alzon 84¢ $10 24h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular SELL BESTIA 100¢ $51 24h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 99¢ $40 24h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 99¢ $10 24h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $14 25h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 90¢ $18 25h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 74¢ $10 25h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 42¢ $6 25h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 74¢ $10 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $62 26h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 72¢ $10 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $50 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.06 · official $202.14 (match) · 259 history records