Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc89a…6391 crypto 1182 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,581 (-3%) realized −$15,581 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate82%969W / 213L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,017
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -4.4% -13.5% 85% 26% -6.8%
≤30d 712 -4.4% -13.5% 85% 27% -10.3%
≤90d 1182 -2.9% -12.2% 82% 34% -10.5%
all 1182 -2.9% -12.2% 82% 34% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 34% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 18% -19.1%
15% -28.3% 12% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$175 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15,581
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses969 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1182 / 1182
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$399
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1182 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $176 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $146 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $501 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $147 +$30 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $125 +$32 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $230 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $124 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $1,093 +$62 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1,386 +$172 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $112 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $2,228 +$81 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $151 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $44 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $201 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $124 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $454 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $121 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $242 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $44 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $125 +$91 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $34 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $131 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $121 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $131 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $113 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $12 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $138 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records