Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C8 0xc89b…4b6b sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$585 (+7%) realized +$1,262 · open −$677
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$1,145per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$405
other 11% −$605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +85.9% +68.2% 100% 100% +68.2%
≤30d 1 +85.9% +68.2% 100% 100% +68.2%
≤90d 5 +45.7% +31.8% 80% 80% -3.3%
all 5 +45.7% +31.8% 80% 80% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.8% 80% -3.3%
10% +19.2% 60% -12.6%
15% +7.7% 60% -21.0%
20% -2.9% 60% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$474 vs −$1,420 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$1,262
Unrealized−$677
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage38d
Avg bet$1,145
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $872 $266 −$605 (-69%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $187 $115 −$72 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $3,800 −$1,420 -37%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $1,013 +$771 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $1,019 +$217 +21%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $997 +$823 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $191 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $586 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 2h
Sabres vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 11¢ $359 35d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $2,020 35d
Sabres vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 67¢ $197 35d
Sabres vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 66¢ $1,823 35d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 57¢ $1,780 36d
Avalanche vs. Wild SELL Avalanche 100¢ $1,784 36d
Avalanche vs. Wild BUY Avalanche 56¢ $1,013 37d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks SELL Golden Knights 44¢ $1,236 37d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Golden Knights 35¢ $1,019 37d
Sabres vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 100¢ $1,820 37d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 54¢ $997 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.28 · official $384.88 (match) · 16 history records