Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc89c…ede9 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$6
economics 29% $0
sports 16% −$12
politics 7% −$3
other 7% +$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 28 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 48 -0.5% -9.9% 35% 4% -9.4%
all 49 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage490d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $48 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $52 +$2 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $73 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $86 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $48 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $42 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $82 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $105 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $41 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $55 +$4 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $11 +$3 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $43 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $1,148 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $322 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $286 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $8 +$4 +50%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $284 −$3 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Oral Roberts vs. Denver Mar 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $46 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 44h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $46 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $46 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $46 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $48 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $47 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $45 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.44 · official $46.28 (match) · 212 history records