Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C8 0xc89c…71ed other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$473 (-16%) realized −$472 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 592d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$495
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -97.8% -98.0% 0% 0% -98.0%
all 3 -32.4% -38.8% 33% 0% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 0% -25.3%
10% -44.7% 0% -32.5%
15% -50.0% 0% -39.0%
20% -54.9% 0% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$277 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$472
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage592d
Avg bet$729
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $520 −$508 -98%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 08 $1,094 −$46 -4%
Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? Nov 06 $1,221 +$59 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $82 1h
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? SELL No 0¢ $11 51d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 51d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 51d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 51d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 10¢ $105 53d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 9¢ $105 53d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 9¢ $105 53d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 9¢ $105 53d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 11¢ $68 53d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 2¢ $2 53d
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,048 528d
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,094 528d
Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? SELL No 97¢ $657 591d
Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? SELL No 97¢ $3 591d
Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? BUY No 91¢ $620 591d
Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? SELL No 63¢ $621 591d
Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? BUY No 61¢ $601 591d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.87 · official $79.87 (match) · 18 history records