Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc89d…9dc0
crypto · 37 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$153 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$183 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$303
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day3464.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$183
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Up 94¢ 100¢ $157 $165 +$8 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $89 $97 +$8 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 65¢ 80¢ $14 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Up 38¢ 46¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 31¢ 20¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Down 63¢ 54¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $193 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $169 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $620 +$132 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $177 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $218 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $220 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $139 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $123 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $706 +$41 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $118 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $98 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $196 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $170 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $107 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $205 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $284 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $129 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $95 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $346 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $302 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $399 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $166 −$11 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $160 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $166 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $171 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $572 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $567 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $183 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $381 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $241 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $366 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $482 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $264 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $240 +$58 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$172
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 6% -7.7%
≤30d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 6% -7.7%
≤90d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 6% -7.7%
all 34 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 6% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3464.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 6% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 3% -16.5%
15% -25.8% 0% -24.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.31 · official $304.07 (match) · 3500 history records