Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc89f…4bc8 crypto 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate80%348W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$13
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 82% -11.2%
≤30d 420 -4.9% -14.0% 81% 79% -12.6%
≤90d 434 -5.6% -14.6% 80% 78% -13.2%
all 434 -5.6% -14.6% 80% 78% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 78% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 12% -21.5%
15% -30.2% 3% -29.1%
20% -37.1% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses348 / 86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)434 / 434
History coverage37d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 434 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 854 history records