Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8a2…9b15 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$13
politics 34% −$9
sports 10% −$61
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -2.6% -11.9% 5% 2% -9.7%
all 94 -6.2% -15.1% 7% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 3% -9.9%
10% -23.3% 2% -18.5%
15% -30.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -37.5% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage110d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 31 $472 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $402 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $413 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $413 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $988 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $381 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $464 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $439 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $428 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $666 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $436 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $219 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $250 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 07 $445 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $443 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $243 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $203 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $205 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $206 17d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $206 26d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $194 27d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $194 28d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 28d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 31d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 31d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $238 42d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 42d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 42d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $194 42d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $194 43d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $204 44d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $204 44d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $184 44d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $184 44d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 44d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 45d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $260 45d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 45d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $208 46d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $208 46d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $244 46d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $244 46d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 47d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 47d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $258 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 265 history records